sim-numerics/analyze_order.py

"""Verdicts L1-L5 for PREREG 2026-09-21 slot 1, read off sweep_order.json.

Nothing here selects a winner by hunting: L1 is a PAIRED comparison inside each
(similarity, guard) cell, which is the only comparison the pre-registration licenses.

    python -u analyze_order.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import json
import math

REF = {"APS_base": 2806, "APS_best": 2527, "CHA_best": 2683, "BOTH_best": 5511,
       "falsepos": (127, 10560), "illinois": (153, 7045), "bisect": (153, 7530)}


def load():
    with open("sweep_order.json", encoding="utf8") as fh:
        return json.load(fh)


def key(r):
    s = r["spec"]
    return (s[1], s[2], s[3], s[8] if len(s) > 8 else "none")


def main():
    res = load()
    by = {key(r): r for r in res}

    print("L1  PAIRED: does the measured order improve the FAR reading? "
          "(the only licensed comparison)")
    print(f"{'similarity':<11} {'guard':<9} {'APS none':>9} {'APS ord':>8} "
          f"{'CHA none':>9} {'CHA ord':>8} {'solved n/o':>12}")
    wins = losses = 0
    for (sim, sc, gu, ex) in sorted(by):
        if sc != "far" or ex != "none":
            continue
        a, b = by[(sim, sc, gu, "none")], by.get((sim, sc, gu, "order"))
        if b is None:
            continue
        d = (a["APS"]["total"] + a["CHA"]["total"]) - (b["APS"]["total"] + b["CHA"]["total"])
        wins += d > 0
        losses += d < 0
        print(f"{sim:<11} {gu:<9} {a['APS']['total']:9d} {b['APS']['total']:8d} "
              f"{a['CHA']['total']:9d} {b['CHA']['total']:8d} "
              f"{a['APS']['solved']}+{a['CHA']['solved']}/"
              f"{b['APS']['solved']}+{b['CHA']['solved']:>2}")
    print(f"  -> order cheaper in {wins} of {wins + losses} far cells\n")

    print("L1b same pairing on the DERIVED3 reading")
    for (sim, sc, gu, ex) in sorted(by):
        if sc != "derived3" or ex != "none" or gu not in ("safe", "project", "none"):
            continue
        a, b = by[(sim, sc, gu, "none")], by.get((sim, sc, gu, "order"))
        if b is None:
            continue
        print(f"{sim:<11} {gu:<9} {a['APS']['total']:9d} {b['APS']['total']:8d} "
              f"{a['CHA']['total']:9d} {b['CHA']['total']:8d} "
              f"{a['APS']['solved']}+{a['CHA']['solved']}/"
              f"{b['APS']['solved']}+{b['CHA']['solved']:>2}")

    print("\nL2/L3  best cells in the grid, by the paper's per-set rule "
          "(solved first, then cost)")
    for setname, target in (("APS", REF["APS_best"]), ("CHA", REF["CHA_best"])):
        rows = sorted(res, key=lambda r: (r[setname]["n"] - r[setname]["solved"],
                                          r[setname]["total"]))
        for r in rows[:3]:
            s = r["spec"]
            print(f"  {setname} {r['label']:<38} {r[setname]['solved']}/"
                  f"{r[setname]['n']} {r[setname]['total']:6d}  "
                  f"over2x={r[setname]['over']}  "
                  f"(target {target}) exponent={s[8] if len(s) > 8 else 'none'}")

    print("\nL4  guarantee: cells with over2x > 0 (any set)")
    bad = [r["label"] for r in res if r["APS"]["over"] or r["CHA"]["over"]]
    print(f"  {len(bad)} of {len(res)}" + (f": {bad[:6]}" if bad else "  -> intact"))

    print("\nFALSE POSITION, unguarded: is the measured order the parameter-free Illinois?")
    print(f"  {'cell':<34} {'solved':>7} {'APS fev':>9}")
    print(f"  {'false position (paper)':<34} {REF['falsepos'][0]}/154 "
          f"{REF['falsepos'][1]:9d}")
    print(f"  {'Illinois (constant 1/2)':<34} {REF['illinois'][0]}/154 "
          f"{REF['illinois'][1]:9d}")
    for ex in ("none", "order"):
        r = by.get(("rational", "far", "none", ex))
        if r:
            print(f"  {'far+rational, guard=none, ' + ex:<34} "
                  f"{r['APS']['solved']}/154 {r['APS']['total']:9d}")
    for ex in ("none", "order"):
        r = by.get(("rational", "far", "safe", ex))
        if r:
            print(f"  {'far+rational, guard=safe, ' + ex:<34} "
                  f"{r['APS']['solved']}/154 {r['APS']['total']:9d}")

    print("\nBOTH SETS, best order cell against the reference 5511")
    rows = [r for r in res if len(r["spec"]) > 8 and r["spec"][8] == "order"]
    rows.sort(key=lambda r: (398 - r["APS"]["solved"] - r["CHA"]["solved"],
                             r["APS"]["total"] + r["CHA"]["total"]))
    for r in rows[:3]:
        print(f"  {r['label']:<38} {r['APS']['solved'] + r['CHA']['solved']}/199 "
              f"{r['APS']['total'] + r['CHA']['total']:6d}  (reference {REF['BOTH_best']})")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()