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sim-numerics/results_diag_flat_flag.txt
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vvsandClaude Opus 5 e7e74d71e5 Flat regime (PREREG_flat_regime): the unkept-promise flag - after a model step that did not cross the root, r = f_new/f_old >= 1/4, the tangent-versus-halving break-even at m = 2 - RECOGNISES the regime (stage 1: 53.6% of model steps flagged on the flat families against 21.6% on APS and 17.0% on fun1; recall ten times the m>=2 estimator's 5.8%) and cuts the wide-bracket set by 350-490 wherever the budget does not already bind: safe 3390 -> 3037, step 3524 -> 3037, unguarded 4104 -> 3198.
NOT accepted into the proposed rule by the stop rule: under the projection the flat families are already budget-bound (CHA 3220 -> 3198 only) while the false flags on APS cost 2806 -> 3029 (Z2 fails); with G2 both sets fail. The per-problem edge over Chandrupatla on APS turns into 26/72/55. Guarantee intact in every cell. Next candidate, not pre-registered: require the promise to fail twice in a row.

Regression on the branch: 918 pass (twice); the one red test is the paper-number check awaiting the paper update.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-21 13:25:56 +01:00

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group model steps flagged share
APS 1275 276 21.6%
CHA fun1 47 8 17.0%
CHA flat fun3-6 1251 670 53.6%
CHA fun7 0 0 0.0%
CHA other 174 63 36.2%
F1 flat > APS and flat > fun1: 53.6% vs 21.6% / 17.0% -> PASS
bar: m>=2 fires 0.2% canonical / 5.8% flat